沈建光:接管冲击下的货币政策

玛雅视讯平台

京东数字科技首席经济学家沉建光

上周DR001一度创下历史新低,银行间流动性十分充裕,央行近期的表现也整体呈现出边际宽松的迹象,而回顾二季度之初,由于经济数据改观,通胀上行压力,资产泡沫担忧等因素,央行一度释放出货币政策不会进一步宽松的信号,政策转向的原因何在?

在笔者看来,除近期外部环境变化,经济再度承压等原因之外,近期包商银行接管导致的市场流动性分层,以及其背后折射出的中小银行风险隐患可能导致信贷收缩(尤其是小微信贷),是短期内央行加大货币投放力度的主要原因。

流动性分层:资金供给出现结构性问题

由于出现严重信用风险,包商银行于5月24日被央行,银保监会公告实施接管。市场认为,此次接管其实是打破同业刚兑的明确信号,过往机构间互信,宽松的常态将发生改变,由此引发的短期波动的确不容小觑。因而在接管伊始,央行为防范其对流动性带来的冲击,在5月底连续开展OMO(公开市场操作)进行对冲。

然而,后来市场的变化却表明,打破同业刚兑显然有更加深层次的含义。事件早期普惠式的资金投放似乎未能有效缓解中小银行的流动性紧张,随着担忧情绪的传导,流动性分层的情况开始出现,资金供给面临结构性问题。

XX例如,在银行间存款的情况下,国有银行,股份公司和其他大型银行没有受到太大影响,主要是因为难以发布成功率和提高发行中小银行的成本如城市商业银行和农村商业银行。 6月中旬,同类存款月度发行量大幅上升,大银行整体稳定趋势明显分化;二级市场也有类似的表现,同一成熟率的不同收益率显示出明显的差异化,中低收益率。 (AA +,AA)继续上涨,而高评级似乎没有受到显着影响。

此外,从银行间市场流动性传递过程的角度来看,过去已经向“非银行金融机构”展示了“大中线”到“中小线”的特征。目前,流动性传递给中小银行,存在障碍。银行间拆借和回购交易变得更加谨慎。 6月初,市场上出现了债券质押式回购,进一步降低了各类回购商品的信用增级效应。非银行机构在中小银行和其他市场渠道融资方面存在很大困难。例如,与银行间标准化回购交易相比,上证所的协议回购交易成本较高,标准化程度较低,但作者观察到上证所承?档男榛毓郝剩?7天)在6月份大幅上涨。或者,在机构融资渠道缩小后,选择撤退。

货币当局明确了解上述情况并积极采取了一系列对策:一方面,央行自6月以来延续了5月底流动性增加的趋势,例如,央行从6月开始通过OMO柜台回购业务累计流动资金净额为2850亿元; 5月份以后,6月份MLF总额增加了7,400亿元,到期日为6,360亿元,净增770亿元,并连续两个月延续。

On the other hand, the use of orientation tools, window guidance, etc. to solve structural problems, for example, on June 14, the central bank increased 300 billion yuan of rediscounting and standing loan convenience, to strengthen the liquidity support for small and medium banks; 2400 on June 19 The continuation of 100 million MLF increments is aimed at small and medium-sized banks; on June 18, the central bank and the CSRC convened six major banks and some of the industry's head brokers, encouraging large banks to expand financing to large brokers, and supporting large brokers to expand to small and medium-sized non-bank institutions. Financing to maintain the stability of the interbank market.

In addition, in response to sudden market risk events, respond promptly to calm market sentiment. For example, in response to a bond repurchase explosion, the regulation issued a disposal rule related to bond repurchase default or guarantee default, aiming at smoothing out the risk disposal mechanism and stabilizing expectations.

Pay attention to the impact of small and medium-sized banks on the distribution of small and micro credits

In addition to liquidity stratification, the author believes that micro-credit is also worthy of attention. Small micro-credit is the most important part of the current counter-cyclical regulation and response to the downward pressure on the economy and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The small and medium-sized banks represented by urban commercial banks and agricultural business behaviors have occupied the majority of small and micro credits and contributed. The degree is still increasing; the data shows that at the end of 2018, the contribution rate of small and medium-sized banks (city merchants + rural merchants) to small micro loans reached 52.4%, while in early 2015 this figure was only about 40%.

After taking over the contractors, the supervisory authorities also stated that some rural commercial banks and city commercial banks are facing serious credit risks. They are on the verge of technical bankruptcy. Such institutions should be cleanly and orderly cleaned out of the market in accordance with the principle of marketization. And this process may also cause small micro credit to shrink.

xx这种担心并非没有道理。一方面,近年来,中小银行的扩张速度一直高于国有银行和股份制银行等大型银行。根据中国保险监督管理委员会的数据,城市商业银行的债务扩张总量最快,即使在20152016年的信贷扩张期间,仍然超过20%。整体而言,农村商业银行也高于证券交易所和国有银行的平均水平。根据上清数据,近年来,农村商业银行的共址数量迅速增加。另一方面,近年来,中小银行的盈利能力和风险控制能力呈现恶化趋势。例如,根据农业企业的行为,官方统计数据显示,今年第一季度整体净息差大幅下降,去年第四季度下降32个基点。近年来,不良贷款总额的比例持续攀升,在不久的将来几乎保持至少4%,明显高于其他类型的银行。

根据该条款的重要性,最近对私人和小微企业融资的政策支持不断增加。例如,除了上述支持中小银行流动性的目标行动外,李克强总理还在6月26日主持国务院常务会议,确定进一步降低小微观和实际利率的措施企业,并决定深化小微企业金融服务的私人和试点改革;中央银行继续深化中小银行存款准备金率下调的政策框架。 6月17日,它再次对中小银行实施有针对性的存款准备金率下调,发放长期资金1000亿元,全部用于私人和小额贷款。微型企业贷款;此外,国家常务委员会4月17日还要求五大银行确保今年小微企业贷款余额增加30%以上,小微企业综合融资成本在此基础上降低去年。 1个百分点。

货币政策将延续下半年的结构性放松趋势

总的来说,自承包商以来,中央银行通过公开市场操作和MLF释放了大量流动资金。货币政策显示出边际宽松的局面。同时,它还利用定向工具和窗口指导来解决中小银行的流动性问题。微小信贷等小型结构问题以及解除传导机制的努力表明,当前的货币政策是灵活的,工具箱也很丰富。

从目前的情况看,内外环境趋于削弱货币政策。首先,通货膨胀的年概率在3%以内,而通货膨胀通常是适度和可控的。其次,世界上许多发达经济体的中央银行都考虑开启新一轮的降息措施;例如,美联储6月份利率会议公布的点图已经发布了降息信号,根据芝加哥商品交易所集团预测的FedWatch工具,美联储将在下半年降息。概率已达到100%。最近,欧洲央行行长马里奥德拉吉在一份公开声明中表示,一旦欧元区的经济前景没有改善,欧洲央行将采取额外的刺激政策。在这种情况下,中央银行未来可能有降息的空间。

目前,国内外部委的压力很大,承包商的情况尚未消除。结合央行第二季度例会,“创新和改善宏观调控,及时实施反周期调整”,笔者预测货币政策将在下半年继续结构性。宽松的姿势。一方面,当前稳定增长的重要性再次增加,货币当局将继续更多地依赖目标工具,增加创新工具的使用,以维持中小银行的流动性和私人融资困难和小微企业。该问题的政策支持是实现反周期调控和疏浚传播机制的目的;另一方面,不参与“大洪水灌溉”的风险防范措施仍在进行中。今年第一季度,中国非金融业的杠杆率为248.8%。到年底,它将上涨5.1%,结构性去杠杆将继续推进。

In addition, the advancement of financial reform is also crucial and is expected to continue to accelerate. Behind the credit risk exposure of Baoshang Bank is actually a deeper level of ownership structure and governance system. Due to the lack of traditional means of supervision, after this takeover and exploration, the future management of poor institutions will be taken over, reorganized and even exited the market may become the norm, and fluctuations Under the increase, commercial banks will be more cautious, and the changes in the business structure of small and medium-sized banks will be good for optimizing financial supply and serving the real economy in the long run; and interest rate marketization reform will increase private and small micro from the perspective of “price”. Credit supply is very important, and its continued promotion will help reduce the comprehensive financing costs of small and micro enterprises. This year, the central bank has repeatedly released the interest rate and integration signal, which has accelerated the trend. On June 26, the National General Assembly also proposed to improve the commercial bank loan market as soon as possible. The quotation interest rate mechanism will give better play to the guiding role of the loan market quotation rate in the formation of real interest rates.

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